Trade the 2020
US presidential election

The unpredictable nature of the upcoming US election is likely to generate significant market volatility. Be prepared with our expert insight and analysis, and stay informed of all the latest news.

Trading is risky and can lead to loss of capital.

What do you need to know?

The US presidential election will take place on November 3rd, 2020 with Republican Donald Trump competing against Democratic rival Joe Biden.

The election, already predicted to be one of the tightest in history, is being increasingly overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden remains the favourite, although the outcome is likely to depend on who can gain victory in the so-called ‘swing’ states.

What effect is each candidate expected to have on the market?

Stocks

The equity market would likely respond negatively, especially if the Democrats control the House and the Senate, too. The main concerns would be over too much legislative power being concentrated in Democrat hands, with stocks potentially falling by as much as 10% in immediate response.

USD Index

The dollar would likely fall, especially if the Democrats gain control across Congress, as the shift in power from the business-friendly Trump – whose policies were supported by an accommodative central bank – would be dollar-negative.

Gold

The yellow metal would also react negatively as, in a majority Democrat Congress, Biden would have the support to reverse many of Trump’s current policies, removing uncertainty across the markets.

Stocks

It is likely that the equity market would rally in the near-term due to Trump’s business-friendly stance, while a Republican Senate and Democratic House would create less uncertainty.

USD Index

USD would be pressured on fresh risk mode on an expected 4-6% rally in the stock markets, with a divided Congress likely to hinder the implementation of new debt reduction policies.

Gold

A Trump victory would mean continued uncertainty in relations with China (as well as extended sanctions on Iran), boosting safe-haven demand.

Market analysis is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor indicate future performance of the market.

What are the latest polls showing?

Source: ‘Biden vs Trump: who is leading the 2020 US election polls?’ Financial Times

Live Webinar

Join our Head of Investment Research,
Slobodan Drvenica, on 30 October at 5pm (EET)
as he discusses how key election issues are likely to affect the markets.
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